Daily Report – November 09, 2026
Nov 09,2026 Gold reclaims 4,100 and stocks steady as a strong jobs report revives Fed-hike bets
Markets have stabilized after last week's artificial-intelligence selloff. Friday's United States jobs report beat every forecast, with 165,000 jobs added in October and unemployment dipping to 4.1 percent, lifting the market-implied odds of a December Federal Reserve rate hike to around 80 percent. The dollar is firm on that repricing, pushing the euro to 1.1152, sterling to 1.3370 and the Aussie to 0.6890, while USD/JPY has risen to 158.3. Gold has rebounded above 4,100 to around 4,119 as its haven bid returns, and silver has surged to 53.0, though a firm dollar caps the move. The Dow has recovered to around 51,706, oil has eased to 91.6 on Iran de-escalation hopes, and Bitcoin has slid to new lows near 74,800. United States inflation data on Tuesday is the week's key event.
Market snapshot
| INSTRUMENT | LEVEL | BIAS | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| FX MAJORS | |||
| EUR/USD | 1.11515 | Softer | Eased to 1.1152 |
| GBP/USD | 1.33703 | Softer | Slipped to 1.3370 |
| USD/JPY | 158.325 | Firmer | Up to 158.3 |
| AUD/USD | 0.68903 | Steady | Held near 0.689 |
| COMMODITIES | |||
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 4,118.81 | Rebounded | Back above 4,100 |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | 53.026 | Surged | Jumped to 53.0 |
| Crude oil (WTI) | 91.570 | Softer | Eased to 91.6 |
| INDICES & CRYPTO | |||
| Dow Jones (US30) | 51,706.31 | Recovered | Bounced off lows |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | 74,810.49 | Lower | New lows near 74,800 |
Levels are indicative at the time of writing and can differ between spot and CFD quotes. Check live prices on your trading platform.
Top story: a strong jobs report revives Fed-hike bets, lifting the dollar while gold rebounds and stocks steady
Markets have stabilized after last week's artificial-intelligence selloff. Friday's United States jobs report came in strong, with the economy adding 165,000 jobs in October against forecasts near 65,000 and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.1 percent, a hiring rebound that beat every estimate. The data has revived bets on a tighter Federal Reserve: the market-implied odds of a December rate hike have risen to around 80 percent from about 70 percent before the release. United States technology and semiconductor shares rebounded on Friday as worries over AI regulation eased, and Asian equities have opened firmer, with the Dow recovering to around 51,706 after last week's crash toward 51,095.
A jobs beat has flipped the story: with December hike odds near 80 percent, the dollar is firm, gold has reclaimed 4,100 as its haven bid returns, and the focus now shifts to Tuesday's United States inflation data.
Gold has rebounded sharply, climbing back above 4,100 to around 4,119 and up roughly 5 percent on the week, as its haven appeal returns after last week's liquidity-driven selloff; silver has surged to 53.0. The gains are capped, however, by the firm dollar and the higher hike odds, which raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. The dollar is firm on those Fed bets and wide rate differentials, pushing the euro to 1.1152, sterling to 1.3370 and the Aussie to 0.6890, while USD/JPY has risen to 158.3. Oil has eased to around 91.6 after President Trump said further strikes on Iran are unlikely if talks progress, though weekend Middle East headlines keep it two-way. Bitcoin is the laggard, sliding to new lows near 74,100 over the weekend and trading around 74,800, decoupled from the equity stabilization.
Why it matters for traders
- The jobs beat is hawkish. A 165,000 payrolls print and a 4.1 percent unemployment rate have lifted December rate-hike odds toward 80 percent, supporting the dollar and raising the bar for the metals and equities.
- Gold's haven bid is back. Gold has reclaimed 4,100 and is up around 5 percent on the week as last week's forced selling fades, but a firm dollar and higher hike odds are capping the rebound.
- The dollar is firm. Wide rate differentials and the hawkish Fed repricing have pushed the euro, sterling and the Aussie lower and lifted USD/JPY to 158.3; the move can extend while hike bets hold.
- Inflation data is the next test. United States CPI is due on Tuesday; a hot print would cement the December-hike pricing, while a soft one could ease the dollar and support gold and equities.
FX majors
The dollar is firm on the hawkish Fed repricing after Friday's strong jobs report, pushing the euro, sterling and the Aussie lower while the yen weakens past 158 on wide rate differentials. United States inflation data on Tuesday is the next catalyst for the majors.
EUR/USD
1.11515The euro has eased to 1.1152 as the dollar firmed on the hawkish repricing, momentum soft (the hourly RSI near 42). A loss of 1.1145 would open 1.1137, while a reclaim of 1.1158 would reopen 1.1167. The dollar tone and Tuesday's inflation data are the drivers.
GBP/USD
1.33703Sterling has slipped to 1.3370 as the dollar firmed, momentum soft (the hourly RSI near 42). A loss of 1.3363 would open 1.3349, while a reclaim of 1.3377 would reopen 1.3384. The dollar tone is the key driver.
USD/JPY
158.325The pair has risen to 158.3 as the firmer dollar and wide rate differentials weigh on the yen, momentum firm (the hourly RSI near 56). A push through 158.44 would open 158.58, while a loss of 158.23 would reopen 158.02. The dollar tone is the key driver.
AUD/USD
0.68903The Aussie has held near 0.6890 after bouncing off last week's lows, momentum soft (the hourly RSI near 45). A hold above 0.6884 keeps it steady, while a reclaim of 0.6899 would ease the pressure toward 0.6906; a loss of 0.6884 opens 0.6862. The dollar tone and risk mood are the drivers.
Commodities
Gold (XAU/USD)
4,118.81Gold has rebounded above 4,100 to around 4,119, up roughly 5 percent on the week as its haven bid returns, momentum firm (the hourly RSI near 60). A hold above 4,104 keeps it steady, while a reclaim of 4,126 would open 4,138; a loss of 4,104 opens 4,093. The firm dollar and December hike odds are capping the move.
Silver (XAG/USD)
53.026Silver has surged to 53.0 alongside gold's rebound, momentum firm (the hourly RSI near 62). A hold above 52.67 keeps it steady, while a reclaim of 53.10 would open 53.32; a loss of 52.67 opens 52.46. It takes its lead from gold and the dollar.
Crude oil (WTI)
91.570Crude has eased to around 91.6 after Trump played down further strikes on Iran, momentum neutral (the hourly RSI near 48). A push through 91.89 would open 92.43, while a loss of 91.03 would open 90.81. The Iran talks remain the key driver, so a weekend headline could move it quickly.
Indices & crypto
Dow Jones (US30)
51,706.31The Dow has recovered to around 51,706 after last week's crash toward 50,943, helped by Friday's tech rebound, momentum improving (the hourly RSI near 55). A reclaim of 51,738 would open 51,870, while a loss of 51,605 would open 51,473. The AI story and the rate outlook are the key drivers.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
74,810.49Bitcoin has slid to new lows near 74,100 over the weekend and trades around 74,800, lagging the equity stabilization, momentum oversold (the hourly RSI near 38). A hold above 74,466 keeps it steady; a reclaim of 75,141 would ease the pressure toward 75,479, while a loss of 74,466 opens 74,128. It stays tied to the broad risk mood.
Economic calendar
| GMT | GST | Event | Impact | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | 05:30 | China CPI and PPI (October) | MED | - | - |
GST is Gulf Standard Time (GMT +4). Times are approximate and may shift. Dashes mean no widely published market estimate at the time of writing.
What to watch: today's scheduled calendar is light, with China's October inflation data the main timed release and no top-tier United States or European data due. The dominant theme is the hawkish Federal Reserve repricing after Friday's strong jobs report, which has lifted the dollar and capped gold's rebound. The week's key event is United States CPI on Tuesday: a hot print would cement the roughly 80 percent market-implied odds of a December rate hike, while a soft one could ease the dollar and support gold and equities. Oil is watching the Iran talks, and Bitcoin remains the weak spot after sliding to new lows.
Analyst view: three scenarios
Base case ~45%
If markets hold steady into Tuesday's inflation data, the dollar could keep its firmer tone, gold consolidate its rebound near current levels and equities trade sideways, with ranges holding absent a fresh catalyst from CPI or the Middle East.
Hot CPI, hawkish Risk off ~30%
If Tuesday's inflation print comes in hot and cements the December hike pricing, the dollar could extend higher, gold and equities pull back and the Aussie slip, while Bitcoin stays under pressure.
Soft CPI, relief Rebound ~25%
If inflation surprises soft and eases the hike odds, the dollar could ease back, gold and silver extend their rebound and equities and Bitcoin recover, with the euro and sterling steadying.
Scenario weights are the desk's subjective assessment and are not forecasts or trade recommendations.
Risk notes
- CPI is the week's risk. United States inflation data on Tuesday is the next test for the December hike pricing; a surprise either way could drive sharp moves in the dollar, gold and equities, so manage size into the release.
- Hawkish Fed repricing. December rate-hike odds have risen toward 80 percent after the jobs beat, supporting the dollar; a further shift could keep pressure on the metals, the euro, sterling and the Aussie.
- Gold rebound may be capped. Gold has reclaimed 4,100 but a firm dollar and higher hike odds are limiting the move; expect two-way swings around the inflation data.
- Bitcoin is the weak spot. Bitcoin has slid to new lows near 74,100 and is lagging the equity stabilization, so it stays vulnerable to further downside if the risk mood sours.
- Oil and the Middle East. Crude has eased on hopes the Iran talks progress, but a weekend escalation headline could reverse it quickly, so watch the Hormuz and talks newsflow.