Daily Report – November 10, 2026
Nov 10,2026 Stocks rally and the dollar slips as a Senate deal to end the shutdown lifts risk; oil crashes
A risk-on rally has swept markets after the United States Senate advanced a bipartisan deal to end the record government shutdown, though final passage is still days away. Equities have jumped, with the Nasdaq at a three-month high and the Dow rallying to around 52,599, up roughly 1.7 percent. The dollar has slipped as its haven premium fades, lifting the euro to 1.1223, sterling to 1.3444 and the Aussie to 0.6917, while USD/JPY has eased to 158.0. Oil has crashed around 6 percent toward 86 on an OPEC oversupply signal, rising United States inventories and a fading Iran premium. Gold is little changed near 4,111 and silver near 53.0, while Bitcoin lags near its lows around 74,500. United States CPI for October, due today at 13:30 GMT, is the key data event.
Market snapshot
| INSTRUMENT | LEVEL | BIAS | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| FX MAJORS | |||
| EUR/USD | 1.12228 | Firmer | Up to 1.1223 |
| GBP/USD | 1.34440 | Firmer | Rose to 1.3444 |
| USD/JPY | 157.973 | Softer | Eased to 158.0 |
| AUD/USD | 0.69173 | Firmer | Up to 0.6917 |
| COMMODITIES | |||
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 4,111.19 | Steady | Holding near 4,111 |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | 53.011 | Steady | Holding near 53.0 |
| Crude oil (WTI) | 86.173 | Crashed | Slumped toward 86 |
| INDICES & CRYPTO | |||
| Dow Jones (US30) | 52,599.31 | Rallied | Jumped on shutdown deal |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | 74,535.66 | Lower | Near lows at 74,500 |
Levels are indicative at the time of writing and can differ between spot and CFD quotes. Check live prices on your trading platform.
Top story: a Senate deal to end the shutdown sparks a risk rally, lifting stocks and pressuring the dollar as oil crashes
A risk-on rally has swept markets after the United States Senate advanced a bipartisan deal to end the record government shutdown, though final passage is still said to be several days away. Equities have jumped, with the Nasdaq reaching a three-month high and the Dow rallying to around 52,600, up roughly 1.7 percent from Monday as technology shares led the move. The improving mood has pushed the dollar lower as its safe-haven premium fades, lifting the euro to 1.1223, sterling to 1.3444 and the Australian dollar to 0.6917, while USD/JPY has eased to 158.0.
Shutdown relief has flipped the mood to risk-on: stocks have rallied and the dollar has slipped, while oil has crashed around 6 percent on an oversupply signal and a fading Iran premium.
Oil has been the standout mover, crashing around 6 percent toward 86 after OPEC signalled that supply will meet demand, United States crude inventories rose, and the Iran risk premium faded as a ceasefire is priced in. Gold is little changed near 4,111 and silver near 53.0, caught between the supportive softer dollar and the drag of reduced haven demand in the risk-on mood. Bitcoin remains the laggard, hovering near its lows around 74,500 and failing to join the equity rally on crypto-specific weakness. The scheduled focus now turns to United States CPI for October, due today at 13:30 GMT. The report is unusual: because prices were not collected during last year's shutdown, no official year-over-year figure will be published, so the month-on-month change, seen near 0.3 percent, is the key test for the December Federal Reserve debate.
Why it matters for traders
- Shutdown relief is risk-on. The Senate advancing a deal to end the shutdown has lifted equities and pressured the dollar; the move can extend if final passage goes smoothly, but a stall could reverse it.
- Oil has crashed. Crude has slumped around 6 percent toward 86 on OPEC's oversupply signal, rising United States inventories and a fading Iran premium, a sharp move that eases inflation worries.
- The dollar has slipped. With haven demand fading, the dollar has eased, lifting the euro, sterling and the Aussie; the softer dollar is cushioning gold even as risk appetite improves.
- CPI is today's key data. United States CPI for October is released at 13:30 GMT; with no year-over-year figure this month, the month-on-month change near 0.3 percent feeds the December-hike debate, so expect sharp two-way moves.
FX majors
The dollar has softened in the risk-on mood as its haven premium fades on shutdown-deal hopes, lifting the euro, sterling and the Aussie while the yen firms. Today's United States CPI at 13:30 GMT is the next catalyst for the majors.
EUR/USD
1.12228The euro has risen to 1.1223 as the dollar eased, with momentum firm. A push through 1.1230 would open 1.1253, while a loss of 1.1207 would reopen 1.1196. The dollar tone and today's CPI are the drivers.
GBP/USD
1.34440Sterling has rallied to 1.3444 as the dollar softened, momentum firm. A push through 1.3457 would open 1.3473, while a loss of 1.3426 would reopen 1.3411. The dollar tone is the key driver.
USD/JPY
157.973The pair has eased to 158.0 as the softer dollar lets the yen firm, momentum soft. A loss of 157.79 would open 157.67, while a reclaim of 158.15 would reopen 158.27. The dollar tone is the key driver.
AUD/USD
0.69173The Aussie has climbed to 0.6917 in the risk-on move, momentum improving after last week's lows. A push through 0.6926 would open 0.6940, while a loss of 0.6897 would reopen 0.6882. The risk mood and dollar tone are the drivers.
Commodities
Gold (XAU/USD)
4,111.19Gold is little changed near 4,111, caught between the supportive softer dollar and reduced haven demand in the risk-on mood, momentum easing. A reclaim of 4,127 would open 4,145, while a loss of 4,090 would open 4,072. The dollar tone and today's CPI are the drivers.
Silver (XAG/USD)
53.011Silver is holding near 53.0, momentum easing. A reclaim of 53.44 would open 53.84, while a loss of 52.63 would open 52.22. It takes its lead from gold and the dollar.
Crude oil (WTI)
86.173Crude has crashed around 6 percent toward 86 on OPEC's oversupply signal, rising United States inventories and a fading Iran premium, momentum strongly bearish. A loss of 85.50 would open 84.80, while a reclaim of 86.55 would reopen 87.89. Supply and the Iran newsflow are the drivers.
Indices & crypto
Dow Jones (US30)
52,599.31The Dow has rallied to around 52,599, up roughly 1.7 percent on the shutdown-deal hopes, with momentum firm. A push through 52,799 would open 52,999, while a loss of 52,401 would open 52,202. The shutdown deal and today's CPI are the key drivers.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
74,535.66Bitcoin is hovering near its lows around 74,536, failing to join the equity rally on crypto-specific weakness, momentum soft but off its lows. A hold above 74,128 keeps it steady; a reclaim of 75,201 would ease the pressure toward 75,659, while a loss of 74,128 opens 73,790. It stays tied to the broad risk mood.
Economic calendar
| GMT | GST | Event | Impact | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | 17:30 | US CPI inflation report (October, month-on-month) | HIGH | +0.3% | - |
GST is Gulf Standard Time (GMT +4). Times are approximate and may shift. Dashes mean no widely published market estimate at the time of writing.
What to watch: the scheduled headline is United States CPI for October at 13:30 GMT, the key test for the December Federal Reserve debate. It is an unusual report: with no official year-over-year figure this month after the shutdown data gap, the focus is on the month-on-month change, seen near 0.3 percent, so a hot print would lift the dollar and a soft one extend the risk-on mood. The dominant live theme is the Senate deal to end the government shutdown, which has driven today's rally and the softer dollar, so headlines on its final passage matter. Oil is also in focus after its roughly 6 percent crash on the OPEC oversupply signal.
Analyst view: three scenarios
Base case ~45%
If the shutdown deal stays on track and CPI lands near expectations, the risk-on mood could hold, the dollar stay soft and equities consolidate their gains, with gold rangebound and oil heavy after its crash.
Hot CPI or deal stalls Risk off ~30%
If CPI comes in hot and cements December-hike bets, or the shutdown deal stalls in Congress, risk could reverse, the dollar bounce and equities give back gains, while gold finds a haven bid.
Deal passes, soft CPI Risk on ~25%
If the deal passes cleanly and CPI surprises soft, the rally could extend, the dollar fall further and equities and Bitcoin rise, while oil stays pressured by the supply outlook.
Scenario weights are the desk's subjective assessment and are not forecasts or trade recommendations.
Risk notes
- CPI is today's risk. United States CPI for October is released at 13:30 GMT; with the focus on the month-on-month change near 0.3 percent, a surprise could drive sharp moves in the dollar, gold and equities, so manage size into the print.
- Shutdown headlines matter. Today's rally rests on the Senate advancing a deal to end the shutdown; final passage is still days away, so a stall in Congress could reverse the risk-on mood quickly.
- Oil in freefall. Crude has crashed around 6 percent toward 86 on the OPEC oversupply signal and rising inventories; momentum is strongly bearish, so chasing the move carries whipsaw risk.
- Bitcoin is the weak spot. Bitcoin is near its lows around 74,500 and has failed to join the equity rally, so it stays vulnerable to further downside if risk appetite fades.
- Gold is two-sided. A softer dollar supports gold while the risk-on mood caps it; expect two-way swings around the CPI release.