Daily Report – November 11, 2026
Nov 11,2026 A hot CPI sends yields toward 5 percent and the dollar higher, hammering gold as stocks and Bitcoin slip
A hotter-than-expected October CPI has reversed the risk-on mood. Headline prices rose 0.4 percent on the month against a 0.3 percent forecast, with core up 0.3 percent, cementing bets on a December Federal Reserve rate hike. The ten-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 5 percent and the dollar firmed above 102, pushing the euro to 1.1163, sterling to 1.3345 and the Aussie to 0.6877, while USD/JPY jumped to 158.9. Gold has sold off around 2.6 percent to 4,047 and silver to 52.4, equities slipped with the Dow near 52,398, and Bitcoin fell to new lows around 73,760. Oil has steadied near 87. Today is Veterans Day, so the United States bond market is closed and no United States data is due.
Market snapshot
| INSTRUMENT | LEVEL | BIAS | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| FX MAJORS | |||
| EUR/USD | 1.11629 | Softer | Fell to 1.1163 |
| GBP/USD | 1.33450 | Softer | Dropped to 1.3345 |
| USD/JPY | 158.869 | Firmer | Jumped to 158.9 |
| AUD/USD | 0.68773 | Softer | Eased to 0.6877 |
| COMMODITIES | |||
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 4,046.73 | Sold off | Fell on hot CPI |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | 52.439 | Lower | Eased to 52.4 |
| Crude oil (WTI) | 86.832 | Steadier | Holding near 87 |
| INDICES & CRYPTO | |||
| Dow Jones (US30) | 52,398.31 | Slipped | Eased as yields rose |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | 73,762.82 | Lower | New lows near 73,760 |
Levels are indicative at the time of writing and can differ between spot and CFD quotes. Check live prices on your trading platform.
Top story: a hot October CPI cements December-hike bets, lifting the dollar and yields while gold and risk assets sell off
A hotter-than-expected inflation report has reversed the risk-on mood. Tuesday's October CPI rose 0.4 percent on the month against a 0.3 percent forecast, with core prices up 0.3 percent versus 0.2 percent expected, a firm reading that has cemented bets on a December Federal Reserve rate hike. The ten-year Treasury yield briefly rose above 5 percent and the dollar firmed, with the index back above 102. The euro has fallen to 1.1163, sterling to 1.3345 and the Australian dollar to 0.6877, while USD/JPY has jumped to 158.9 as the yen struggles against the higher yields.
A hot CPI has flipped the mood: with the ten-year yield briefly above 5 percent and the dollar firm, gold has sold off around 2.6 percent and equities and Bitcoin have slid.
Gold has borne the brunt, falling around 2.6 percent to about 4,047 as higher yields and the firmer dollar hit the metals; silver has eased to 52.4. Equities slid on the print, with the Dow around 52,398 and a sharp drop in the technology names, while Bitcoin has fallen to new lows around 73,760, threatening the 70,000 level. Oil has steadied near 87 after its crash, finding a floor. Today is Veterans Day, so the United States bond market is closed and there is no United States economic data; the CPI aftermath and shutdown headlines drive the tape. The deal to end the government shutdown continues to progress toward final passage in the House.
Why it matters for traders
- Hot CPI is hawkish. A 0.4 percent headline and 0.3 percent core print, both above forecast, have cemented December-hike bets and sent yields toward 5 percent, supporting the dollar and pressuring the metals and equities.
- Gold has sold off. Higher yields and the firmer dollar have pushed gold down around 2.6 percent to near 4,047; the metal stays vulnerable while yields hold their gains.
- The dollar is firm. The hawkish repricing has lifted the dollar, pushing the euro, sterling and the Aussie lower and sending USD/JPY to 158.9; the move can extend while hike bets hold.
- Thin holiday tape. With the bond market closed for Veterans Day and no United States data due, liquidity is lighter, so moves can be exaggerated and shutdown headlines carry weight.
FX majors
The dollar has firmed after the hot CPI lifted Treasury yields and December-hike bets, pushing the euro, sterling and the Aussie lower and sending the yen to fresh lows. With the bond market closed for Veterans Day and no United States data due, the dollar tone drives the majors.
EUR/USD
1.11629The euro has fallen to 1.1163 as the dollar firmed on the hot CPI, momentum soft. A loss of 1.1156 would open 1.1143, while a reclaim of 1.1169 would reopen 1.1176. The dollar tone and yields are the drivers.
GBP/USD
1.33450Sterling has dropped to 1.3345 as the dollar firmed, momentum soft. A loss of 1.3337 would open 1.3329, while a reclaim of 1.3354 would reopen 1.3363. The dollar tone is the key driver.
USD/JPY
158.869The pair has jumped to 158.9 as higher yields weigh on the yen, momentum firm, with the level drawing intervention watch. A push through 158.90 would open 159.05, while a loss of 158.67 would reopen 158.52. Yields and the dollar tone are the drivers.
AUD/USD
0.68773The Aussie has eased to 0.6877 as the firmer dollar weighs, momentum soft. A loss of 0.6867 would open 0.6859, while a reclaim of 0.6883 would reopen 0.6899. The dollar tone and risk mood are the drivers.
Commodities
Gold (XAU/USD)
4,046.73Gold has sold off around 2.6 percent to 4,047 as higher yields and the firmer dollar hit the metals, momentum bearish. A loss of 4,029 would open 4,016, while a reclaim of 4,053 would open 4,065. Yields and the dollar tone are the drivers.
Silver (XAG/USD)
52.439Silver has eased to 52.4 alongside gold's selloff, momentum soft. A loss of 52.18 would open 51.78, while a reclaim of 52.98 would open 53.38. It takes its lead from gold and the dollar.
Crude oil (WTI)
86.832Crude has steadied near 87 after its crash, finding a floor, momentum stabilizing. A reclaim of 87.83 would open 88.78, while a loss of 85.94 would open 84.99. The supply outlook and the Iran newsflow are the drivers.
Indices & crypto
Dow Jones (US30)
52,398.31The Dow has slipped to around 52,398 as the hot CPI lifted yields and hit the technology names, momentum soft. A reclaim of 52,531 would open 52,664, while a loss of 52,267 would open 52,134. Yields and the rate outlook are the key drivers.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
73,762.82Bitcoin has fallen to new lows around 73,763, threatening the 70,000 level as the hot CPI weighs on risk, momentum bearish. A hold above 73,234 keeps it steady; a reclaim of 74,352 would ease the pressure toward 74,911, while a loss of 73,234 opens 72,700. It stays tied to the broad risk mood.
Economic calendar
| GMT | GST | Event | Impact | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closed | Closed | US bond market holiday (Veterans Day) – no scheduled US data today | LOW | - | - |
GST is Gulf Standard Time (GMT +4). Times are approximate and may shift. Dashes mean no widely published market estimate at the time of writing.
What to watch: today's calendar is bare. The United States bond market is closed for Veterans Day and there is no scheduled United States economic data, so cash Treasuries do not trade and liquidity is lighter than usual. That leaves the aftermath of Tuesday's hot CPI as the dominant theme: watch whether Treasury yields hold above 5 percent and whether the dollar extends its gains. Headlines on the government shutdown, which continues to move toward final passage in the House, are the other swing factor, and the softer, thinner tape means moves can be exaggerated.
Analyst view: three scenarios
Base case ~45%
If yields hold their gains in the thin holiday tape, the dollar could stay firm and gold stay heavy, with equities consolidating lower and Bitcoin fragile near its lows, ranges holding absent a fresh headline.
Yields push higher Risk off ~30%
If the ten-year yield extends above 5 percent and December-hike bets firm further, the dollar could rise, gold break below 4,016 and equities and Bitcoin fall further, with the Aussie and the euro under pressure.
Yields stabilise Relief ~25%
If yields settle back and the shutdown passes cleanly, risk could steady, the dollar ease and gold bounce off 4,016, with equities and Bitcoin recovering some ground.
Scenario weights are the desk's subjective assessment and are not forecasts or trade recommendations.
Risk notes
- Yields are the key risk.The ten-year yield briefly topped 5 percent after the hot CPI; if it holds there the dollar stays firm and the metals and equities stay pressured, so watch the rate move even with cash Treasuries shut.
- Thin holiday liquidity. With the bond market closed for Veterans Day and no United States data, liquidity is lighter, so moves can be exaggerated and stops run; manage size accordingly.
- Gold under pressure. Gold has fallen around 2.6 percent to near 4,047 and stays vulnerable while yields hold their gains; a break of 4,016 would open more downside.
- Bitcoin is the weak spot. Bitcoin has fallen to new lows around 73,760 and is threatening 70,000, so it stays vulnerable to further downside if risk appetite stays weak.
- Yen at intervention levels. USD/JPY at 158.9 is in territory that has drawn official warnings before, so watch for intervention headlines that could snap the pair lower.