Daily Report – October 13, 2026
Oct 13,2026 
By admin Euro at a 2026 low as oil and a hawkish Fed keep the dollar near an 18-month high
The euro broke to a new 2026 low near 1.1155 on Monday as the dollar index closed near 102.6, with oil rising for a third session on Middle East shipping attacks and Fed officials sounding hawkish after the September minutes. The move has eased in Asian trading as Treasury yields dipped, with EUR/USD back near 1.1173 and gold near 4,198, while chipmakers led Asian equities lower. US Treasury trading resumes after the holiday, the big banks report earnings today and US CPI follows tomorrow.
Market snapshot
| INSTRUMENT | LEVEL | BIAS | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| FX MAJORS | |||
| EUR/USD | 1.11726 | Soft | 2026 low 1.1155; bouncing |
| GBP/USD | 1.32177 | Steady | Holding above 1.3200 |
| USD/JPY | 158.314 | Steady | Off Monday high near 158.7 |
| AUD/USD | 0.69605 | Steady | Holding 0.6950 after RBA |
| COMMODITIES | |||
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 4,197.57 | Firmer | Rebounding as yields ease |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | 60.624 | Firmer | Recovering from 59.6 dip |
| Crude oil (WTI) | 92.939 | Steady | Near 93 on Hormuz risk |
| INDICES & CRYPTO | |||
| Dow Jones (US30) | 52,030 | Firmer | Near 52,000 before bank earnings |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | 83,574.47 | Bounce | Rebounded from 81,000 |
Levels are indicative at the time of writing and can differ between spot and CFD quotes. Check live prices on your trading platform.
Top story: oil and a hawkish Fed push the euro to a 2026 low
Monday's US holiday session left a heavy mark. Oil rose for a third straight session on attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi targets, with WTI near 93 and Brent above 100. The dollar index closed near 102.6, an 18-month high, and EUR/USD broke below last week's low of 1.1160 to a new 2026 low near 1.1155. Gold slipped to about 4,170 as the stronger dollar and oil-driven inflation worries weighed.
Oil, yields and a hawkish Fed are driving the dollar, with Treasury trading reopening and the big banks reporting today.
The tone has softened since Asia opened. Treasury yields dipped slightly as cash trading resumed, leaving the dollar a little softer, and EUR/USD has bounced to 1.1173 while gold has recovered to 4,198. Asian equities fell, led by chipmakers after the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell about 2.7% on Monday, and the yen firmed after Japan's producer prices rose 6.8% year on year, below the 7.6% forecast. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup report before the US open, and US September CPI follows tomorrow.
Why it matters for traders
- Oil is the swing factor. Shipping attacks near Hormuz keep a risk premium in crude, while the unconfirmed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and talk of Russian diesel exports cap rallies.
- The Fed sounds hawkish. The September minutes showed most officials saw another hike as appropriate by year-end, and Cleveland Fed President Hammack said policy may need more restraint. The 30-year Treasury yield has touched 5.6%, its highest since 2002.
- The euro is under pressure. EUR/USD is about 7.4% below its January peak. Europe imports much of its energy, so oil headlines can weigh on the pair as much as US data.
- CPI is tomorrow. US September CPI is due at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday, with forecasts clustered near 3.6% to 3.7% for the headline rate and 0.2% for core on the month.
FX majors
The dollar is firm after Monday's rally but easing in Asia as yields dip. The euro is the weakest of the majors, while sterling, the yen and the Aussie are holding their ranges. Momentum has reset from oversold, so the next move depends on oil and yields.
EUR/USD
1.11726The euro broke to a new 2026 low near 1.1155 on Monday as a firm dollar and higher oil weighed on it, and it has bounced since. Momentum near 48 has reset from oversold. The pair needs to clear 1.1188 to extend the bounce toward 1.1217, while a break below 1.1155 opens 1.1130, the 50% retracement of the January 2025 to January 2026 rally.
GBP/USD
1.32177Sterling has held above 1.3200 while the euro slid, trading in a range with momentum neutral near 48. It needs to clear 1.3222 to build a bounce; a loss of 1.3202 would put 1.3185 in view. Bank of England MPC member Dhingra speaks at 16:00 GMT.
USD/JPY
158.314The pair is easing from Monday's high near 158.75 after Japan's producer price data came in below forecast, with momentum near 41. The 200-day moving average near 158.54 is the first test, and intervention concerns near these levels limit the upside. A loss of 158.19 would open 157.77.
AUD/USD
0.69605The Aussie is holding near 0.696 after the RBA minutes said the board stands ready to raise rates further if needed, following the 25 basis point hike to 4.60% on 29 September. Momentum is neutral near 45. A hold above 0.6950 keeps the bounce intact, while a clean break would expose 0.6934.
Commodities
Gold (XAU/USD)
4,197.57Gold has rebounded from Monday's 4,170 as easing yields lift the metal. It has tended to move opposite oil during the Iran war, since higher energy prices raise inflation and Fed hike expectations. Momentum near 64 is firm but not stretched. The 4,206 area is first resistance, while a drop below 4,151 would put 4,112 back in play.
Crude oil (WTI)
92.939WTI sits near 93 after three straight gains, with Brent above 100. Attacks on shipping near Hormuz keep a risk premium in crude, while the unconfirmed energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine limits rallies. Momentum is neutral near 47. The bounce needs to clear 93.58 to build, while a break below 92.50 would open the 90.10 low.
Silver (XAG/USD)
60.624Silver has recovered above 60.5 after a dip toward 59.6, following gold higher, with momentum near 57. As the higher-beta metal it tends to amplify gold's moves, so 60.88 is the first hurdle and 60.16 the near-term floor; yields and the dollar will set the direction.
Indices & crypto
Dow Jones (US30)
52,030The Dow is pressing toward 52,000 after closing Monday at 51,856, the only major US index to gain as chipmakers dragged the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower. Momentum at 70 is stretched and the bank earnings before the open are the test. Support sits at 51,700, with 51,385 below it. The chart shows no overhead resistance, so 52,100 and 52,200 are round-number markers.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
83,574.47Bitcoin traded near 82,900 on Monday as weak chip stocks and a firmer dollar hit risk appetite, and has since rebounded to 83,574 from a dip near 81,000. Momentum is neutral near 58. It needs to clear 84,325 to extend the recovery, while a drop below 83,000 risks a retest of 81,025.
Economic calendar
| GMT | GST | Event | Impact | CONSENSUS | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | 10:00 | Germany CPI y/y, final (Sep) | LOW | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 07:45 | 11:45 | Fed Governor Waller speaks | MED | - | - |
| 10:00 | 14:00 | US NFIB small business optimism (Sep) | LOW | 98.0 | 98.7 |
| - | - | US bank earnings: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup (before the US open) | HIGH | - | - |
| 14:00 | 18:00 | US existing home sales (Sep) | LOW | 3.96M | 3.98M |
GST is Gulf Standard Time (GMT +4). Consensus figures are market estimates and may be revised before release. Dashes mean no widely published estimate at the time of writing.
What to watch: the bank earnings before the US open and the first full Treasury session since Friday set the tone for yields. Fed speakers Waller (07:45 GMT), Barkin (17:00 GMT) and Collins (20:00 GMT) are scheduled. Tomorrow's US CPI at 12:30 GMT is the bigger test, so positioning may stay cautious ahead of it.
Analyst view: three scenarios
Base case ~45%
If yields hold near their highs and oil stays around 93, the dollar would likely stay firm, with EUR/USD ranging between 1.1155 and 1.1188 and gold between 4,151 and 4,206. Ahead of tomorrow's CPI, range trading would fit better than chasing a breakout.
Oil jumps, dollar extends USD up ~30%
If new Hormuz or Saudi headlines push WTI above 93.58 and yields rise again, EUR/USD could retest 1.1155 and head for 1.1130, gold could fall toward 4,151, and the Dow could lose 51,700.
Oil eases, relief USD down ~25%
If oil slips toward 92.50 on ceasefire progress and yields ease further, the dollar could soften. EUR/USD could bounce toward 1.1217, gold could reclaim 4,206, and the Dow could extend toward 52,200.
Scenario weights are the desk's subjective assessment and are not forecasts or trade recommendations.
Risk notes
- Bank earnings before the US open. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup can move equities and yields sharply; spreads widen and slippage rises around the open.
- CPI tomorrow. US September CPI at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday can reset Fed hike expectations, so positioning ahead of it can be thin and volatile.
- Geopolitical headline risk. Hormuz shipping attacks and unconfirmed ceasefire reports can move oil, the dollar and gold within minutes, in either direction.
- Yen and intervention. USD/JPY near 158 to 159 remains in the zone where Japanese authorities have acted before, capping the upside.
- Chip and AI selloff. Weakness in chip stocks hit Asian markets this morning and could spread to US indices if bank results disappoint.